Consultant planting estimates for Mississippi track NCC intentions survey

I spent part of today at the Mississippi Agricultural Consultants Association meeting in Starkville. When I asked consultants there about their farmers' planting intentions, the responses pretty well matched with the National Cotton Council's planting intention survey results, which we posted last week.

One consultant said he estimated that his cotton acreage would be down 30% "at a minimum."

Another said he had only talked to 2 of his growers, so far, and they would plant 35% less cotton between them. "At this point, I dread visiting the rest of them."

A consultant said that one Delta operation - which grew 4,500 acres of cotton last year - would not have a single acre this year. "It's all going to be grain," he said. "Their pickers and boll buggies will sit out the season."

The ripple effect throughout the industry already is being taken into account. A consultant in north Mississippi said that the local gin turned out 18,000 to 19,000 bales in most seasons (with last year's drought knocking it down to about 12,000). "This year, even with good weather, I don't see how more than 12,000 bales will be ginned there, based on the amount of cotton people say they will plant."

Most of the shift is into corn, although a couple of people mentioned that at least some of the ground will be planted in grain sorghum. Several reasons were cited. Grain sorghum prices have been tracking corn, so there's a strong market. Grain sorghum doesn't require as much water, so that would help reduce pumping costs. Plus, corn seed - at least for the desired hybrids - aren't available, and some people are opting to shift at least some acreage to grain sorghum and plant a more or less proven variety.

A couple of people said that crop insurance guidelines for 2007 - according to some interpretations - seem to make grain sorghum a safer bet, even in terms of doublecropping it behind wheat.

A couple of consultants said they were trying to discourage their growers from following wheat with a second crop this year. Aside from concerns about rust hitting later beans, dryland doublecrop is something they see as a sure loss, and even aggressively irrigated soybeans might not produce well enough to offset the extra costs for pumping and late-season pest control.

• AgFax News, Downloads
• Subscribe to our reports