Hurricane Forecasts: Another Sign Of Spring

It's that time of the year when weather forecasting firms gaze into the old supercomputer and try to divine which way hurricane season will head.

Most of them were pretty much off target last year (correct me if you know differently) because the reports I saw called for at least moderate activity. In fact, 2009 was a light year, overall. Yes, much of mid America -- from Louisiana to the upper Corn Belt -- received way too much rain in the summer and fall. But little of it could be traced to hurricanes.

That said, we've just received what I think is the first hurricane forecast for 2010. It calls for more activity than in 2009, which probably isn't that tough a call. It also contends that Georgia and the Carolinas will likely see more activity compared to other areas.

Here it is:

In its first hurricane season report for 2010, WSI Corporation -- a part of The Weather Channel companies -- calls for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater).

The 2010 forecast numbers fall between the long-term (1950-2009) averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes and the averages from the more active recent 15-year period (1995-2009) of 14/8/4.

Further, WSI's hurricane landfall forecasting model (developed in collaboration with reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter) suggests that Georgia and the Carolinas are most at risk this season, with near to slightly-below normal risks along other parts of the US coastline.

"2009 was the quietest tropical season since 1997, as an emerging El Nino event combined with relatively cool tropical Atlantic waters to suppress widespread development," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. "The previous five El Nino events have all been followed by significant increases in tropical activity the following summer as the vertical shear weakens and the tropical Atlantic warms up. We expect a similar result this summer, and feel that our current forecast numbers are more likely to be adjusted upwards rather than downwards as we get closer to the season."

Crawford also indicated that the Southeast US had an enhanced risk of hurricane landfall this season. "Our statistical landfall forecast model, which takes into account northern hemispheric ocean temperatures and current atmospheric patterns, is suggesting that Georgia and the Carolinas are at greatest risk for hurricane landfall this season. This model correctly predicted an active Gulf season in 2008 and a quiet season in 2009."

WSI's next seasonal forecast update, which will include forecasts for spring and early summer temperatures, will be issued on February 23. The next update on the 2010 tropical season will be released on April 21.

- Owen Taylor

Cotton Herbicide Programs: What Some Farmers Are Looking At For 2010

I found a thread this morning on the independent forum, New Ag Talk, that discusses cotton herbicide plans that these farmers intend to use in 2010's crop.

Significantly, I doubt if this discussion would have taken place 5 years ago, back when Roundup resistance wasn't a known factor and the main question was, "When do you spray Roundup?" Comments cover Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

If you grow cotton and want a quick basis of comparison, here's the thread:

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=146482&posts=10&start=1

- Owen Taylor

The Future Of Cotton?

Here's a thread from New Ag Talk, my favorite agricultural forum, about the future of cotton. Like these things go, it rambles a bit, but the comments from farmers in several states touch on both the immediate future of the crop, general planting intentions for 2010 and its long-term prospects.

See, in particular, the sixth entry about what apparently is an adjustment that John Deere has made to its marketing program for its module-building cotton picker in response to demand.

- Owen Taylor

Soaring sugar prices: nill effect on U.S. plantings

Sugar continues to soar. That will have little, if any, if any effect on sugar acres in the U.S. this year. The 2010 sugarcane crop already has been planted, and marketing allotments also are fixed for cane and beet sugar.

Here's a report from John Christopher with The Linn Group:

Sugar futures hit a 29-year high Wednesday as the market continues to focus on lower crops in both Brazil and India. March sugar settled up 13 points at 29.11 cents per pound. The May contract rose 27 points to close at 27.79 cents per lb. Late in the session, March sugar topped its previous life-of-contract high of 29.06 cents on Jan. 19, peaking at 29.45 cents. This is the highest level for a frontmonth contract since January 1981. Prices continue to attract increased buying as areas of resistance fall by the wayside.

Most analysts said sugar's rise was not due to breaking news so much as the market continuing to factor in a bullish supply/demand. Initial thoughts were the dry weather across Brazil would hurt yield, but sucrose content has been improved.

Yields now look to be 140 kg per tonne of can up from 133 kg last season. The center-south region usually accounts for 90 percent of Brazilian production; this is the first time since 1971 that yields will be better in the northern regions. From the demand prospective, buyers continue to emerge.

Mexico released a statement that it will need to import 450,000 mt during the current cycle to rebuild depleted inventories and meet export demand. Mexican inventories are currently at 500,000 mt or half of normal levels. Indonesia and India also remain around the market. Indonesia is in the process of procuring 500,000 mt by Febuary and India is looking at 1 million mt by end of the first half of this year.

Here's a related link from NewAgTalk.Com that I started. In sugarbeet country, as this thread reflects, sugar production is a contentious issue.

What is a cold wave? That depends.

"Cold wave" is a commonly-heard phrase this time of year, but under what conditions do meteorologists use the expression? Mary Knapp, the state climatologist for Kansas, puts it this way:

"As used by the National Weather Service, it means a rapidly falling temperature in the next 24 hours. These falling temperatures would require substantially increased protection for
agricultural, industry, commerce and social activities."

Knapp says there are two factors that mark a cold wave: the rate the temperature falls, and the low to which it falls. These obviously vary from region to region and season to season.

"What constitutes a cold wave in Minnesota would be quite different than a cold wave in Florida," said the climatologist, who oversees the Kansas Weather Data Library, based in K-State Research and Extension. "For the majority of people, it is simply a period of very cold weather and each of us can decide what is cold!"

Ag Connect trade show: initial assessments

The Ag Connect trade show, which just concluded its first even in Orlando, Florida, was much-promoted, based on what our readers and others have been saying. How did it stack up?

Some attendees expressed a bit of disappointment in a thread on NewAgTalk.Com.

- Owen Taylor

Farm equipment sales will remain weak, with scattered bright spots possible

Ag equipment sales are expected to remain light, according to a report today from the national Association of Equipment Manufacturers, a trade group that works in both the farm and construction equipment industries.

Reasons for pessimism include still-low commodity prices, a general decline in farm income and tighter credit.

Some bright spots still may be out there, according to a report from the California Farm Bureau.

"Farm equipment dealers say they expect a mixed sales year in California for 2010," CFB reported in its weekly e-letter. "Dealers in farming areas where commodity prices were good last year, such as rice, look for a good year, according to the Far West Equipment Dealers Association. Dairy and hay growers may enter the equipment market if their commodity prices improve in 2010 as expected. Sales of most farm equipment declined last year."

- Owen Taylor

Tillage radishes - how big do they get?

The answer: longer than a five-gallon bucket, at least.

See this thread, with photo, on NewAgTalk.Com, my favorite ag forum.

- Owen Taylor

Gowan acquires Intruder insecticide

Gowan Company, LLC announced this week that it has obtained exclusive U.S. marketing rights from Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. for Intruder 70WSP insecticide for use on cotton.

Until now, the product had been marketed by DuPont.

Intruder 70WSP contains the active ingredient acetamiprid, part of the neonicitinoid family of insecticides, discovered and wholly owned by Nippon Soda Co. Ltd.

Effective November 20, 2009, Tucson-based Gowan gained the exclusive distribution rights for Intruder 70WSP and will continue to position Intruder 70WSP as a premier cotton insecticide for use in the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas.

“Intruder has become an important tool in cotton insecticide programs and has demonstrated excellent field performance and recognition amongst growers on a wide range of cotton insects.” Chad Dyer, Gowan Company product manager, said in the announcement, which had been rumored at the Beltwide Cotton Conference earlier this month in New Orleans.

Intruder controls a wide range ofpests on cotton including aphids, thrips, fleahoppers, white flies, and plant bugs. The addition of Intruder 70WSP insecticide further strengthens the presence of Gowan Company in the cotton market while laying the foundation for future product development.

- Owen Taylor

Cotton seed availability: fewer choices every day

Scott Brown, Extension Coordinator in Colquitt County, Georgia, sent out a couple of advisories today regarding cotton seed availability. He sees several points of concern. Some people may think they'll get DP 555 but won't. Others who have not booked seed yet will find that some varieties already may be out of stock and others are dwindling fast.

Here's his report:

There appear to be a number of producers thinking that they have DP 555BR seed allocated to them for planting who have no idea how much they are going to get.

If arrangements were not made for 2010, use of BR cotton seeds prior to the September 30 deadline then there is no longer an option for getting them.

All producers who made arrangements for their BR seed before the September 30 deadline have been billed by Monsanto for this seed. Thus, if you have DP 555BR seed reserved for you then you should have already been billed for it at $25/bag, so you should know how many bags you will receive.

Unless you worked out some kind of deferred payment with your supplier and they received the bill for you, if you haven’t been billed for any DP 555 then there is a high likelihood that you do not have any allocated to you. I suggest that you ask the supplier you made arrangements with in September about your BR seed allocation for the details on these seed as soon as possible.

Further regarding cotton seed...

It was going to be pick-and-choose on a field-by-field basis in terms of cotton seed this year year, but it now appears that it will be choose-and-choose-again on a field-by field-basis.

Over the past few days, we have heard some disturbing revelations on the availability of seed for certain cotton varieties. There are reported to be shortages, placement or allocation issues with the following:

• FiberMax 1740B2RF

• Phytogen 370WR

We knew that the Class of 2010 form DPL would be limited, but now it appears that:

• DP 1050B2RF will be very limited

• DP 1048B2RF will be less limited than 1050 but more limited than previously thought.

• DP 1034B2RF limited amount located here an additional limited amount should be available though order.

Phytogen 565WRF is already in the hands of distributors and, for the most part, what they have is all there is.

So, stop what you're doing, make your cotton variety selection on a field-by-field basis and then site down with your dealer as soon as possible.

We no longer live in the 555 world of one size fits all.

Roundup Resistance Focus Of New Blog

An increasing amount of information funnels across our screen every day about Roundup-resistant weeds and how to manage them in the 2010 crop season.

With that in mind, we have set up a new, separate blog to deal with reports, recommendations and advisories.

Here's the link: http://roundup-resistant.blogspot.com

- Owen Taylor

Beltwide Cotton Conference, New Orleans

It's a breezy 35 degrees in New Orleans, but it feels like 29 when crossing Canal Street to hear the speakers of the day. Everyone is talking weather while a winter storm watch for snow and ice is predicted three hours north of the Crescent City.

Cotton Insect Loss Estimates Across the Cotton Belt - 2009
Michael R. Williams from the Entomology and Plant Pathology Department at Mississippi State University, released info on Cotton insect Loss Estimates for 2009. It comes as no surprise that Lygus, Thrips, Heliothines and stink bugs were major pests. However, total losses in U.S. cotton were at 2.56 -- not bad. Williams credits technological advances in pest management as key to keeping losses below 5 percent. He notes that new pest control complexes developed slower than anticipated though bugs continue to be worrisome as insecticide resistance becomes a reality. Growers will see Spider mites, aphids and Thrips making a comeback with more selective insecticides on the horizon. Cotton insect management was $43.79 per acre in 2009, cost plus losses were $62.68 per acre.

Cotton Economic Update
Gary M. Adams, National Cotton Council, said an improved general economy, the weaker U.S. dollar and improving fundamentals with a tighter balance sheet, moved cotton gains 20 to 25 cents last year. In 2009, 9.1 million acres were planted, down 3.5 percent from 2008, with average yield at 782 pounds per acre. Excessive rainfall in the Mid-South and Southeast, plus the south Texas drought lowered crop potential with 10.9 million 480-bales classed as of December 31.
Cotton exports will again be critical with 2009-10 exports down from previous 2 years. As with the world balance sheet, U.S. cotton stocks projected to decline. Current estimate off 4.5 million bales, less than half total stocks of past two years. Top three markets of China, Turkey and Mexico receive more than half of all U.S. exports. China is largest at 30 percent.
India presents significant competition in cotton export market. Due to increased price supports in 2008, their exports sharply lower in 2008-09, but as world prices improve they are poised to expand exports. An increase in India's trade share generally means a reduction in U.S. trade share.
Adams Looks at 2010: Cotton stocks will decline, offering support to cotton prices. Recent rise in prices has placed cotton in more competitive position than anytime in past three years. Historically, when world prices approach current levels, growers in other countries respond with increased area.
Maintaining mill demand at current prices is critical. Manmade fibers continue to pose serious competition for U.S. cotton emphasizing importance of promotion efforts of Cotton Incorporated and Cotton Council International.

A Dose of Optimism: Beltwide Cotton Conference, New Orleans, Day 2

It's 32 degrees and sunny in New Orleans as I move among cotton growers, consultants and industry folks attending the multitude of meetings. I did gain perspective on the cold weather as I shivered on the elevator next to someone who arrived yesterday from Iowa. It was 16 degrees below when he left home.

I got a nice dose of Optimism at early morning Dow AgroSciences breakfast. Mid-South Cotton Specialists anticipate increased cotton acreage despite a dismal weather year. Texas High Plains are holding their own where there is little choice in crop rotation other than cotton and grain sorghum. And, Arizona had a great cotton year.

Congratulations to Mississippi Crop Consultant Joe Townsend, Cotton Farming magazine Consultant of the Year

Congratulations to Mark Williams of Farwell, Texas, 2009 Cotton Grower magazine Grower of Year.

The Cotton Museum at Memphis Cotton Exchange adding new exhibit on mechanization, biotechnology, and cotton as versatile fiber late February. Sponsored by Monsanto, Cotton Incorporated Case IH.


Debra

Happy 2010!

Agfax.com Items of Note as the new year begins:

Ernie Flint, Mississippi Field Notes columnist, notes that Tom Vilsack, Ag Secretary, made a Christmas Eve announcement about Supplemental Revenue Assistance Payments program (SURE).

Was anyone left out of weather problems this year? I don't think so. Wettest, Latest Harvest in 30 Years

Texas: Working to beat corn yield challenges, Drought Tolerance and Aflatoxin

Louisiana Jazzman, not Jasmine. Sometimes the name makes all the difference, at least when it comes to Rice.