Will Cuban trade debate make a fast start in '07?

Expect a big push on easing trade restrictions with Cuba as Democrats - presumably more open to the idea - take the reigns of Congressional ag committees. A memo circulated to members of the U.S.A. Rice Federation indicates that several House ag committee members were interested in taking a fact-finding trip to Cuba "as early as possible in 2007." The group includes Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), incoming chairman of the House ag committee.

The federation, according to the memo, also has called for an early '07 meeting of the Agriculture Commodity Roundtable, an ad hoc task force that represents grain, oilseeds, livestock and other ag-related industries. The focus of the meeting would be "strategies for increasing trade and tourism with Cuba," the memo specified. A meeting is expected in late January or early February.

The big obstacle, of course, remains the Bush administration. One unknown right now is the medical outlook for Fidel Castro. Reports range from him being on death's door to making a robust recovery. Some Washington insiders say that the Bush administration will be more open to trade with the communist state if Castro is out of the picture.

Also complicating the Cuban picture - and U.S. trade throughout Latin America - is a shift among several nations there to elect left-leaning and anti-American leaders. Equador is the latest. Polls show a strong chance that the country's next president will be a socialist.