Almonds could claim another 200K acres in California by 2010

As noted in a post earlier this week, pistachio acreage continues to increase in California, which is bad news for cotton in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Permanent plantings limit the available acreage for annual crops. A press release today from Blue Diamond Growers illustrates just how much almond acreage is expanding, too.

Almond-bearing acreage is expected to increase by 25,000 acres to 605,000 acres in 2007 and an additional 50,000 acres per year to 2010, according to the release. Not all of that increase will be in the SJV, but it's a majority of those new trees will likely take root in the six counties that constitute California's main cotton belt.

About 10 years ago, I asked someone well connected with SJV agriculture - Vern Crawford, a Wilbur-Ellis PCA in Kern County - to estimate at what point the valley would possess too many almond trees.

"I don't know," said Vern. "I asked that same question 15 years ago, and they just keep planting more." Demand for almonds, in fact, has trended upward for the last 25 years. Several reasons have fostered market growth. The almond industry has rolled out new products. One of the latest is an almond-based milk substitute beverage. It also has allied the nut with more cereal and candy brands and has done a superlative job of cracking new markets overseas. The almond industry also has funded research projects that point to possible health benefits derived from eating more almonds.

The market hit record high prices in 2005 - $4 per pound. That works out to a penny per almond, figuring 400 almonds per pound. Price fell to $2 a pound later that year but then rebounded $1 a pound.

A cotton and alfalfa farmer who lives near Bakersfield joked recently that from now on he intends to rotate his cotton with almonds.