Sorting through AccuWeather's hurricane forecast for '06

AccuWeather just released its 2006 hurricane season forecast, one of several issued by various groups and universities every spring. AccuWeather’s forecast is a little different because it focuses on intensity and likely points of landfall, not just the number of named storms.

The Pennsylvania-based company is only predicting five hurricanes and a single tropical storm, but it says that a signicant amount of activity this year could be in highly populated parts of the country, particularly along the Atlantic Coast into the northeast.

Ken Reeves, an AccuWeather meteorologist, noted in the e-zine Diasternews.net that the power and location of a few storms can be more significant than the total number of hurricanes in a given season. He cites 1992, which had six named storms, a relatively low annual number. Yet, up until 2004, that was the most destructive hurricane season on record. Much of the damage came with Hurricane Andrew, which struck south Florida, taking a hard and expensive lick at Miami and surrounding areas.

In the Disasternews.net report, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist, Jack Bastardi, called the 2006 season “a creeping threat” because of the potential size of storms and where they might hit. Here’s a synopsis of AccuWeather’s predictions:

• In June and July, the Texas Gulf Coast faces the greatest likelihood of a hurricane making landfall. That puts energy production at risk. Some rice may be vulnerable at that point, too.
• Starting as early as July, the risk starts shifting to the Carolinas and continues there through the season, something that could affect growers at harvest.
• From mid August into early September, the risk factor spreads northward to the more urbanized northeast. Hardly anyone thinks about hurricanes hitting that part of the world, but folks in New England still talk about the Long Island Express, a hurricane that hit the region in 1938, killing 600 people.
• Toward the end of the season, south Florida is again at risk.
• Overall, at least three of the storms could be Category 3 hurricanes.

Some hurricane specialists believe that the East Coast is more vulnerable in a year following a busy hurricane season along the Gulf Coast.