Midsouth consultants may be upping estimated cotton acreage decline

Cotton consultants in the Midsouth continue to tell us that they will have less cotton to check this season compared to last year. If anything, their estimated cotton acreage seems to have declined a bit more since we posted an item about this after the Mississippi Agricultural Consultants Association meeting in February.

Just before the Gin Show last week in Memphis, DuPont hosted a seminar for consultants, and we attended the event.

One Mississippi consultant, who said in February that his acreage might be off 35% for 2007, told us in Memphis on Thursday that the number may be more like 40% and “maybe a little above that.”

Another Mississippi consultant who works in the south Delta said his cotton acreage would be off by 60%.

Two consultants said that at least one of their colleagues had projected that his cotton plantings would be off by 70%.

The decline appears to be somewhat less in the Missouri bootheel, two consultants from that area said. One estimated that his cotton acreage would decline only 10% to 15%.

Consultants said the amount of acreage reduction depends, in part, on whether farmers own a gin. If so, they are perhaps reducing acreage a bit less than their neighbors. Another factor seems to be whether growers are in areas where significant corn acreage already exists. That may be the case in areas like southeast Missouri.

Consultants are picking up much of the corn acreage that had been in cotton, several said. The per-acre fee is less. But, compared to cotton, the scouting season for corn ends sooner, and consultants don’t have to deal with defoliation decisions.

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