Rice: Zwinger calls NASS report "bullish"

Jeremy Zwinger, whose Farm & Trade rice analysis is posted on our web site every week, sent along the following quick analysis of today’s NASS report:

• Total U.S. rice acres down 14%. “This is likely to be bullish factor for next 12 months.”
• California acres are down 1%. “This forces USDA to lower medium grain production by 2-3 million cwts, which means expected supplies must be reduced by 2-3 million in either domestic or export. The South only increased medium grain plantings by about 500,000 to 600,000 cwts. Taken all together, this should be considered a very bullish signal to the market, with low supplies and problems in other producing countries. Prices are very likely to increase in the coming year.”
• Long grain acres down 17%. This is “very bullish” when added to Iraq business, if it continues.
• This is the lowest planted acres in over a decade. “This speaks for itself.”