Late-Week Cotton, July 25: Market ends lower, bollworms take flight, late crop complicates wheat planting

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source

July 25, 2009

By Owen Taylor

Editor, AgFax Media

Cotton Market Pulls A Lloyd Bridges On Friday

Meaning, it took a dive. (If you're too young to understand the reference, do a web search for "Sea Hunt".) Cotton slipped sharply, and Duane Howell - DTN’s cotton correspondent - says the market may have established a near-term top.

Read his full report.

Better weather and crop conditions in the Delta and Texas also could account for the bearish turn, Scott Stiles writes in this week's Arkansas Cotton Update. Stiles, an U. of Arkansas ag economist, also provides an analysis of where nitrogen prices are likely going.

See his report on page 3.

Roundup Ready or Ready For Roundup?

Rome Ethredge, Extension Agent in Seminole County, Georgia, took this photo of a pile of Palmer amaranth pulled from a peanut field in his county this week. It's an all-too-familiar site in both the Southeast and Delta this year as growers bring in crews to chop and pull a weed that no longer succumbs to Roundup, with that resistance further complicated by ALS resistance. “I’ve seen more hand pulling than ever this year and more rope wick applicators for our glyphosate and ALS resistant Palmer amaranth,” Ethredge noted in this week’s Seminole Crop E-News.

More Moths Taking Wing

Parts of the Southeast are experiencing a larger bollworm/corn earworm moth flight. Cotton newsletters from both Georgia and South Carolina showed clear spikes in bollworm moth captures to date.

“Captures of bollworm moths have dramatically increased again,” Jeremy Green, Extension Entomologist, reported in the Clemson Cotton/Soybean Insect Newsletter on Thursday. “How high will these numbers go, and how long will the pressure last once these moths start depositing eggs in high densities? I think they will go higher, and I think that this flight out of corn could persist for a lengthy period at high levels. The window for corn planting was a long one, so we have corn that is maturing at varying times."

That likely means extended bollworm/earworm pressure, Greene said. Be aware of egg lay and moth flushes in cotton, "particularly if you have sprayed for bugs with an OP alone and have not used a pyrethroid yet,” he added.

While Bt varieties provide a level of protection, check for escapes and follow threshold guidelines (included with his report)

“Also, be aware of corn earworm (bollworm) in soybeans (called ‘podworm’ in soybeans), especially considering this level of moth activity, so check soybeans that are blooming or setting pods,” Greene emphasized.

Links to both reports:

• Georgia Cotton Pest Management, 7-24, Corn earworm pressure high; fall armyworms reported at low to moderate numbers; aphids still lingering.

• South Carolina Cotton & Soybean Insect Report, 7-23, Bollworm & Tobacco Budworm; Captures of Bollworm moths have increased.

Late Cotton Complicates Wheat Planting

Late planted cotton could bump into short recrop intervals where growers want to plant wheat after the pickers leave the field, according to Larry Steckel, Tennessee Extension Weed Specialist.

“Please keep in mind there are just a few commonly used layby herbicides that have a recrop interval short enough where sowing wheat this fall would still be on label,” Steckel writes in this week’s University of Tennessee IPM Newsletter.

See his report and a table of herbicide wheat recrop intervals on page 2.

California's Cotton Feeling The Heat

Temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley - where most of California's cotton is grown - hit 111 and 112 in places last weekend, July 18-19, and temperatures have pretty solidly been in triple digits since then, from 102 to 108 in places.

"It's suppose to be 102 today, and a farmer and I agreed that would seem pleasant at this point," joked Tony Touma of Bio-Ag Consulting Friday. Touma and other PCAs (Professional Crop Advisors) are wondering what effect the intense heat will have on the fruit load.

For more on the heat and crop in California, see this week's MiteFax, our report covering cotton and other row crops in the SJV.

Plant Bugs Once Again "Pest Of The Week" In Arkansas

That's how Gus Lorenz puts it in this week's Arkansas Cotton Report. For a couple of weeks, plant bugs were eclipsed by bollworms. A heavy moth flight - loaded with high levels of pyrethroid resistance - moved through the state for a couple of weeks, pushing plant bugs to the back row in terms of attention. But now plant bug numbers are building.

See comments from Lorenz on page 1.

AgUpdates, July 27 Edition

SUNBELT AG NEWS

From staff and services

Late-Week Cotton: Why did the market drop?; bollworms take flight in Southeast; late crop complicates wheat planting; even for California, too much heat 7-25

Late-Week Rice: Market up a bit, coastal harvest starts, sort of 7-24

North Carolina: Peanut Disease Forecast 7-25

Peanuts: insect advisories, leaf spot - PeanutFax 7-24

California Cotton: What will the heat do?; lygus building - MiteFax Report 7-25

California Almonds: Spider mite concerns; harvest nears 7-25

Pilgrim's Pride to Idle Two Chicken Processing Facilities in Athens, Alabama, and Athens, Georgia 7-24

Mississippi: Erratic weather has hurt state corn yield potential 7-24

Arkansas: Field Day to Focus on Resistant Pigweed, Insects and Economics 7-24

Closing Livestock: Cattle futures finished mixed 7-24

Closing Rice: Posted Gains Today After Charting Key Reversal Yesterday 7-24

Closing Grain: All Grains Locked in Seasonal Downturns 7-24

Closing Cotton: Market Skids Below Retracement Point 7-24

USDA National Weekly Cotton Review 7-24

Linn Soybean Commentary: Closed Firmer along with other Ag Commodities 7-24

USDA National Weekly Grain Review 7-24

Corn Yields, Frost Concern In Upper Corn Belt 7-24

K. Good's Farm Policy: Climate Legislation; Animal Agriculture; CFTC Issues; Food Safety; and Doha 7-24

Southern Grain: More insect advisories for soybeans, rains helping, corn harvest updates 7-23

Virginia Cotton: Potential Improves Following Rain 7-23

Kansas: K-State´s Shroyer Says Start Early, Stay Vigilant in Controlling Volunteer Wheat 7-23

Arkansas: ‘We haven’t got the boats out yet:’ Farmers, Agents Take Stock Following Heavy Rains 7-23

Brazil Corn Outlook 7-23

Energy: Gas, diesel prices continue to decline 7-23

Rice harvest delayed on coast due to rain, while showers prompt fungicides in Midsouth: RiceFax 7-23

Delta Cotton: More insect pressure and more rain 7-23

Southeast Cotton: More worms, more stink bugs, maybe more rain 7-23

STATE ADVISORIES

Bulletins, newsletters, analysis

ALABAMA:

Alabama Crop Report, 7-20.

ARKANSAS:

Arkansas Cotton Update, 7-25. Plant bugs once again the pest of the week, and building; market retreats - why?; nitrogen prices made a bottom?

Arkansas Rice Newsletter, 7-22. Leaf-tip discoloration: sheath blight or something else?; wet weather and rice disease.

Arkansas Crop Report, 7-20.

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July 24, 2009 RiceTec Hybrid Rice Report Audio | PDF Don't forget smut, and keep scouting; rains delay harvest in south Louisiana; combines running in Texas; rain continues in the Midsouth -- maybe too much in places; reminders on N applications; still time to see strip trials. More info and tools: www.ricetec.com

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California:

Cotton Field Check, 7-25. Late-fruiting management issues.

Tree And Vine Newsletter, 7-21, Disease Digest: Lower Limb Dieback of Almond; July Leaf Sampling: Sampling Today for 2010’s Fertilizer Budget; Spotted Wing Drosophila.

FLORIDA:

Florida Agronomy Notes, August, Stinkbug damage to corn; Asian Soybean Rust found earlier this year; the value of rotating peanut and cotton with bahia grass.

Florida Crop Report, 7-20.

GEORGIA:

Georgia Worth County Weekly Crop Report, 7-24, Caterpillars abundant in peanut and grain sorghum fields; very low levels of leaf spot in peanuts; stink bug damage under control in cotton.

Georgia Seminole Crop E News, 7-24, Corn harvest begins; compensating for late soybean planting; lots of caterpillars in everything.

Georgia Cotton Pest Management, 7-24, Corn earworm pressure high; fall armyworms reported at low to moderate numbers; aphids still lingering.

Georgia Market Watch, 7-23.

Georgia Crop Report, 7-20.

KENTUCKY:

Kentucky: Controlling Corn Borers, 7-22, Pests and diseases to look for on late planted corn.

Kentucky Pest News, 7-22, Fungicides and stalk quality.

Kentucky Crop Report, 7-20.

LOUISIANA:

Louisiana Cattle Market Update, 7-24.

Louisiana Rice Field Notes, 7-24, Not a great deal of bacterial panicle blight; blackbird damage an increasing problem; sulfur deficiency.

Louisiana Rice Report, 7-23, Reports of Blast and Cercospora and in Jeff Davis and Acadia; farmers wait for rain to stop so they can start harvesting.

Louisiana Crop Report, 7-20.

MISSISSIPPI:

Mississippi Crop Situation, 7-24, Looks like a late cotton crop; nutrient deficiencies; Palmer pigweed getting worse in soybeans; diplodia ear/stalk rot of corn.

Mississippi Crop Report, 7-21.

Mississippi Field Notes, 7-20, Start a fall garden for fun and food.

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NORTH CAROLINA:

North Carolina Pest News, 7-24, “Crunch time” for stink bugs on cotton; lesser corn stalk borers on soybeans; be on lookout for southern rust in corn.

oklahoma:

Oklahoma Crop Report, 7-20.

SOUTH CAROLINA:

South Carolina Cotton & Soybean Insect Report, 7-23, Bollworm & Tobacco Budworm; Captures of Bollworm moths have increased.

South Carolina Crop Report, 7-20.

TENNESSEE:

Tennessee Market Highlights, 7-24, Crop market comments by Chuck Danehower; Livestock comments by Emmit L. Rawls.

Controlling E. Coli in Hamburger Requires "Meat ID" Not Animal ID, 7-24, D. Ray, UTenn Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

Tennessee IPM Newsletter, 7-23, Tips for Use of Foliar Fungicides for Soybean Diseases; Increase of immature plant bugs in many fields.

Tennessee Crop Report, 7-20.

TEXAS:

Texas Crop, Weather, 7-21, Drought-stricken areas, the southern half of the state, high and dry.

Texas Crop Report, 7-20.

VIRGINIA:

Virginia Ag Pest Advisory, 7-24, Low numbers of corn earworm moths this week (averaging less than 2 per night) from reporting stations.

Virginia Crop Report, 7-20.

RELATED MATERIAL:

The Rice Advocate, 7-24, Senate Ag Committee Hearing on Climate Legislation.

Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report, 7-24, Covers Major Commodities.

USA Rice Federation Daily, 7-24, Farm Service Agency program notice.

Riceland Daily Market Review, 7-24, Timely rains and sunshine help soybean and rice crops.

USDA Peanut Prices, 7-24.

USDA Catfish Production, 7-24.

Commodity Consulting's Cotton A.M., 7-24, Cotton Market is "technically wounded".

USDA Grain Transportation Report, 7-23, Third Consecutive Week of Strong Grain Inspections; New Crop Secondary Rail Bids Indicate Strengthening Transportation Demand.

USDA Catfish Feed Deliveries, 7-21.

USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, 7-21.

USDA Catfish Processing, 7-20.

USDA Crop Progress, 7-20.

Nunn Cotton Letter, 7-20, Futures trade midweek to highest levels since 10/9/08 with closes Friday highest since early October 2008.

UPCOMING EVENTS

(FD: field day; SS: scout schools)

Oklahoma Ag Technology Field Day July 28, Northwest Tech Center, Fairview.

Mississippi Soybean Grading Clinic, July 29, 9 am, Vicksburg/Warren school district superintendant's office, Vicksburg.

Louisiana Agritourism Road Show, July 30, 10 am, Calhoun Research Station, 321 Hwy. 80 East, Calhoun.

Arkansas Agriculture FD, July 30, 7:30 am, UAPB Agriculture Research Station, Pine Bluff.

Mississippi Soybean Grading Clinic, July 31, 9 am, Delta REC, Capps Entrepreneurial Center, Stoneville.

Texas Beet Short Course, August 3-5, College Station.

Mississippi Soybean Grading Clinic, August 4, 9 am, Tunica RiverPark, Tunica.

Kansas Subsurface Drip Irrigation FD, August 4, 2:30 pm, Northwest Research-Extension Center, Colby.

Arkansas NEREC Crops FD, August 5, 9 am, Keiser.

Georgia: Bioenergy Conference, August 11-13, Tifton.

Louisiana Rural Tourism Conference, August 11-15, Paragon Casino Resort, Marksville, Register at http://srdc.msstate.edu/misslou/.

Arkansas: University of Arkansas Rice FD, August 12, 8 am, Rice REC, Stuttgart.

North Carolina Northeast Ag Expo FD, August 12, 7:30 am, Camden County Extension Center, South Mills.

Texas Wheatheart Wheat Conference, August 13, 8 am, Expo Building, Perryton.

Mississippi Soybean Grading Clinic, August 18, 9 am, North Mississippi REC, Verona.

Georgia Agriculture FD, August 19, 9 am, University of Georgia Southeast Research and Education Center, Midville.

Arkansas Cache River Valley Seed Rice and Soybean Field Day, August 19, Cash.

Florida Peanut FD, August 20, 8 am, call 850-482-9904, Marianna.

Alabama Wiregrass REC All-Crops Field Day, August 21, 8:30 am.

Louisiana Agritourism Road Show, August 20, 1:30 pm, Dean Lee Research Station, 8208 Tom Bowman Drive, Alexandria.

Kansas Southwest REC Field Day, August 27, 620-276-8286 for info, Garden City.

Philippines, World Rice Conference, Oct 27-30, Shangri-la’s Mactan Resort and Spa, Cebu.

Louisiana Dean Lee Research and Extension FD, August 20.

San Antonio International Farm and Ranch Show, October 8-10, Freeman Coliseum, San Antonio Texas.

Texas 21st Annual Plant Protection Assn. Conference "Application of Agricultural Technology and Management for Changing Times", December 2 & 3, Brazos Center, Bryan.

Rice Outlook Conference, Dec. 9-11, New Orleans Marriott, New Orleans, La. For more information, contact Jeanette Davis, jdavis@usarice.com.

2010 National Cotton Council Beltwide Cotton Conferences, January 4-7, New Orleans Marriott Hotel and Sheraton New Orleans Hotel.

To list an event, contact Owen Taylor

Wheat: store or deliver?

Cory Walters, University of Kentucky Ag Economist, posted the following advisory on the state's grain blog Friday on wheat marketing strategies:

Wheat producers may be asking themselves if they should store or deliver wheat and if they store should they forward price or not.

Currently, the wheat futures contract at the Chicago Board of Trade is offering a large positive carry (the difference in price between two futures contracts) for storing wheat from now into the fall. The gross return between July and December futures is 53 cents per bushel (6.23 for July and 6.76 for December) as of June 5, 2009.

The July to September carry is 28 cents per bushel. The forward price benefit of 53 cents per bushel offers positive returns to storage, thereby making storage with a futures contract (a storage hedge) for fall delivery appealing since net return to storage is positive.

To calculate net returns you should subtract variable costs to storage (this includes the interest cost of capital in the wheat), cost of insurance on wheat, and cost of shrinkage from the gross return of 53 cents. Also, any basis improvement between now and delivery would add to storage hedge returns.

-- Owen Taylor

A season with more bad choices than usual

My favorite cartoonist, Joe Martin, draws a daily strip called "Mr. Boffo."

Boffo is a kind of an everyman who Martin places in all manner of situations, from prehistoric times to the space age and in all types of peril and predicaments. The humor in Boffo can be, well, subtle.

Perhaps my favorite one shows Boffo strapped in a hulking electric chair, and in each hand he holds a piece of white bread.

The caption: "Making the best of a bad situation."

In other words, the best Boffo can do at this point is make toast.

Which brings me to this cropping season in the American South.

With all the rain in April and/or May (depending on where you are), this season has started in a miserable fashion. The wheat crop (see the item below) has suffered terrible losses in yield, quality and test weight. We reported more comments about that in this week's AgFax: Southern Grain report, plus carried numerous advisories in the Worth Downloading section on our home page.

Beyond the wheat, many growers were unable to make fertilizer and herbicide applications on corn until weeks after they were due. Soybeans and cotton were planted late and/or replanted multiple times. People in the field are telling us about soybean farmers who have replanted some spots 2 and even 3 times. Cotton and rice planting have been delayed so long that growers finally switched acreage to soybeans where they could. And much of the South's peanut crop will be planted late enough that it will take an extremely warm fall to carry it to full maturity.

Which brings us back to Mr. Boffo holding that bread and hoping for toast when the voltage hits.

This is one of those years when we're trying to make the best of a bad situation, which I'm hearing almost universally from farmers and the people who advise them.

In many cases this year there have been no "right" or "best" decisions, only varying degrees of bad choices, whether you're dealing with replanting, herbicide drift on rice or Valor injury on peanuts. Every choice is bad, but some are worse than others.

A Mississippi consultant told me about attending a social function over the weekend where he came in contact with a cross-section of Delta farmers -- cotton, rice, grain, Baptists, Catholics, even a sprinkling of Ole Miss graduates. It was the kind of gathering that people who run corporate focus groups should attend if they actually want to know what farmers think.

When they talked about the way this season has unraveled, the consultant realized that nearly every farmer in the crowd at one time or another said, "I'll be glad when this SOB (or words to that effect) is over."

"You always hear that, but it tends to be as you approach harvest or maybe in the middle of the season when they've suddenly got to throw a bunch of money at insects or irrigation," the consultant observed. "But this is the earliest I've ever heard so many people say it so much."

We've been hearing the same thing.There are plenty of bad situations to go around and, unfortuately, ample opportunities -- like Boffo -- to make toast.

-- Owen Taylor

Sprouting wheat: a bad situation made worse

Wheat acreage dropped in the South for the 2008/09 crop, which was a blessing in many areas.

This has turned out to be a disappointing crop in much of the region due to heavy, persistent rain in April and May. Diseases flared, even where fungicides were applied on time. Growers who planted susceptible varieties and couldn't make fungicide applications on schedules were often left with crops that weren't worth harvesting, and what would have been a contribution to cash flow has now turned into an expensive cover in the absence of crop insurance.

Now, growers are dealing with sprouting issues. Grain dried down to the point it could have been harvested, but then rain developed again, keeping combines out of the field and exposing vulnerable grain to enough moisture to sprout the seed.

Dewey Lee, Georgia Extension Wheat Specialist, has been dealing with this issue and distributed an advisory last week.

Click here to download Lee's observations and recommendations.

Initial reports came from Georgia. But we're also hearing about sprouting in south Alabama. As wheat harvest moves north, more of this probably will be encountered. Farmers who might have been cutting wheat over the last week in the Midsouth were forced, instead, to finish planting other crops delayed by the rain, replant acres lost earlier and catch up on fertilizer and herbicide work across the board.

Rain moved into the region on Thursday, which could promote sprouting in some fields.

Most elevators in the affected areas are rejecting loads with sprouting of 4% or more, based on our conversations with several growers and Extension workers. In certain areas, 30% to 40% of the loads are above the limit. A handful of elevator operators, though, are buying the grain and finding a home for it in the feed market, albeit with dockage.

-- Owen Taylor