Glyphosate Resistance Management: A Brave New World

When he came to America a year ago to make presentations on glyphosate resistance, Stephen Powles said he was met at times with utter skepticism.

“In some conversations (at ag meetings), people asked, ‘Is that right, weeds can gain resistance to glyphosate? Is that really possible?’”

A year later, the Australian weed scientist is back in the U.S., and attitudes are different. “Nobody asks those kinds of questions now," he said. "They now understand the reality (of the situation)."

The difference between last year and this year is that Georgia weed scientists announced finding glyphosate-resistant Palmer amaranth in the state, and weed scientists in North Carolina and Tennessee also said they found what appeared to be similar cases in their states.

Powles made that observation this morning during a teleconference on glyphosate resistance. The conference was arranged by Syngenta, and Powles was one of three panelists who answered questions for ag writers during the teleconference, which focused on cotton. (A similar conference was planned this afternoon for Midwest ag writers.)

Powles, a professor at the University of Western Australia and director of the Western Australia Herbicide Resistance Initiative, has become an authority on the subject of herbicide resistance. As he joked, ag technology and information usually start in the U.S. and flow to Australia. In this case, Australians are supplying the initial information because they’ve lived with resistance issues longer.

Australia has had all manner of problems with herbicide resistance, including glyphosate-resistant ryegrass in its wheat belt.

Other panelists this morning were:

• Chris Main, South Carolina Extension weed specialist. Main studied glyphosate-resistant horseweed while working on his PhD at the University of Tennessee.
• Chuck Foresman, Syngenta’s technical brand manager for herbicide resistance.

A number of my colleagues participated in the conference, including David Bennett with Delta Farm Press, who wrote some of the initial articles about this looming problem. David and others will likely have expanded coverage in upcoming issues.

What I’m passing along today are the high points:

The bottom line first: Growers will have to break away from total reliance on glyphosate. Panelists admitted that nobody wants to hear such talk in a farm economy that’s already squeezed by weak commodity prices and escalating input costs. “Farmers are simply farming in 2006 in a way that allows them to possibly make a profit so they can farm again in 2007,” Main observed. “But they need to be planning now for the next three to five years and do things that allow us to preserve this technology (Roundup Ready) for as long as possible.”

No “silver bullets” are on the horizon. Main said that no new or significant herbicides or weed-control technologies are likely to be available over the next several years. The overwhelming adoption of Roundup Ready created a research gap several years ago, Powles explained. With a fading herbicide market, a number of companies merged, so there are now fewer corporate research programs, overall. Companies mothballed projects that would have easily gone forward before Roundup Ready’s introduction. While some products are in various stages of development, it will be late in the decade before you’ll see anything that might help.

The key is “diversity.” Both Powles and Main used the word to describe the mixture of chemical, mechanical and agronomic tools growers will have to resurrect in order to stall further resistance development. Think tankmixes, residual herbicides, tillage, cultivation, postemergence materials, rotation, etc.

Roundup Ready technology still has a place. But, Main said, its price may decline as resistance becomes more of a factor. “Glyphosate still controls 95% or more of the weed species out there,” he said. “But where resistance is a factor, you’ll have to add something else. As more weeds become resistant, the amount the market is willing to pay for this technology will likely decrease because there’s less utility with the glyphosate option.”

Related item: Our Beltwide coverage this month included a related article, Herbicide Resistance: Don't Panic, But Be Proactive.

On the wire: Cotlook Ups 2005-06 World Cotton Output Estimate

And we quote: "The man who has confidence in himself gains the confidence of others." -- Hasidic Saying

Item: Favorable For Rust?Item: To Flex Or Not To Flex?Item: Sacramento Seed Biz Emerges

Weather Favorable For Rust?: This has been an exceptionally warm winter, so far, throughout much of the Midsouth and parts of the Southeast, and that’s raising concerns about the potential for Asian soybean rust spores to make it through the winter at a higher latitude. In other words, the disease could overwinter on kudzu and gain a geographic headstart when the season begins. Ed Sikora, Auburn University Extension Plant Pathologist, reported Tuesday that 2 kudzu patches in Montgomery County first observed with soybean rust on Jan. 12 were still alive. “The location is approximately 125 miles north of the Florida Gulf Coast,” he estimated in a summary filed on USDA’s soybean rust website. “Most of the 2 patches are dormant. One patch was in a protected site on the north side of an underpass off of Interstate 85, while the other patch was hanging in a tree along a bluff of the Alabama River. Growers in south Alabama
should be on the lookout for kudzu patches with green tissue surviving in protected areas. Contact your local extension agent with this information so that the patch can be monitored this winter as a potential overwintering site for soybean rust.”

To Flex Or Not To Flex: Keith Edmisten, NCSU Cotton Specialist, sent us the following thoughts on picking cotton varieties this season:

• Growers need to evaluate which available technology is best for them. Roundup Ready Flex may be worth it to a grower with large acreage who might have trouble timing over-the-top applications of Roundup. A grower might also have a portion of his acreage that he feels very confident that timely Roundup applications can be made. The same grower may have remote fields or wet natured fields that may be more difficult to follow the 4-leaf over-the-top rule for standard Roundup Ready. Roundup Ready Flex might be a good option for those fields.

• Growers should still look at varieties with the best yield potential and fiber quality that will not cause discounts while weighing the value of technology on a particular field. In the past, we have often seen growers make wholesale shifts to one or two varieties when a new genetic technology is introduced. This does not spread risk and can lead to problems across the entire farm. Producers should try to minimize risk by using several varieties and not put too much acreage into any unproven variety.

Sacramento Valley Flourishes As Cotton Seed Source: The following item appeared this week in California Farm Bureau's Food & News Report. "Cotton farmers in the Sacramento Valley have seen growing demand for their crops, from seed companies. Farmers estimate that up to half the cotton grown in the valley is used to produce seed for later crops. Seed marketers say the Sacramento Valley has produced consistent cottonseed crops the past few years, while producers in Texas and other states have suffered from weather problems. As a result, the Sacramento Valley has enhanced its reputation for producing high-quality cottonseed."

On the wire: Muted Reaction In Nybot Cotton To China Higher Output

And we quote: "Tradition is a guide and not a jailer." -- W. Somerset Maugham

Item: Miss. Peanut Assn. Takes ShapeItem: Cotton Comfort ResearchItem: Zapping Bugs In Stored Rice

Mississippi Peanut Meeting: Growers began laying the foundation yesterday for a state peanut growers association. The meeting, held in Hattiesburg, drew about 30 people, and at least of them were growers, mainly from established growing areas in south Mississippi. Initially, the group worked on crafting bylaws and determining how best to deal with checkoff money that would be generated by a $2.50/ton fee. Mississippians planted about 14,000 acres of peanuts in 2005, and there are prospects for 40,000 acres in 2006 if expansion – particularly in the Delta – goes forward as projected.

Looking For Cotton Comfort: Delta & Pine Land sent us a press release this week regarding whether different cotton varieties have different properties that might influence things like comfort and fabric’s ability to move moisture vapor away from the skin. The work, reported on at the Beltwide earlier this month, is being done at Texas Tech University. Cotton has taken it on the chin from synthetics designed for sports activities, including cycling and camping. The expression “cotton kills” is something you’re likely to hear from clerks at outdoor stores or even from Scout leaders who are telling boys how to dress warmly for cold-weather camping. The recommendation is to buy thermal-type underwear made of synthetic cloth because it more efficiently moves sweat away from skin.

Zapping Insects In Stored Rice: University of Arkansas researchers are looking for ways to use infrared energy to kill insects in stored rice. The goal is to find methods that don’t require the use of chemicals. Click here for more info.

On the wire: Dow Jones Report tonight:

• Rains Ease Worries For Delta Cotton Growers.
• Brazil Soy Market Slow As Large Crop Equals Lower Prices.

And we quote: "The highest result of education is tolerance." Helen Keller, 'Optimism,' 1903

Ag Disaster Assistance:What Happened and What's Ahead

Randy Jemison, USA Rice Federation’s Louisiana representative, sent a brief update to his state’s members Monday, which was forwarded to us by a couple of people. According to Jemison, USA Rice and several other commodity groups met with the staff of U.S. Senator Thad Cochran (R. Miss.) last week about what could be done when Congress returns and again tries to provide additional ag disaster assistance.

In December, he reported, hurricane assistance was included in the last appropriations bill of tghe year, which was for defense funding. The ag package had started at about $4 billion but was cut by the House leadership to well below $1 billion. In the end, only about $400 million was included for a forestry/timber assistance program for the direct hurricane impacted states, Jemison reported.

“Looking ahead, there will likely be another supplemental spending bill in (the) late February to April timeframe for the Iraq war and to replenish some of the FEMA accounts,” he reported. “This would be the next opportunity to attempt to add ag disaster assistance. Sen. Cochran is still supportive of trying to accomplish this, but it is going to take more support from a bipartisan group of Senators (and support from some key House members. Any type of ag disaster package has to have some components that are tied to hurricane damage or losses.”

The “preferred option” would be to let producers choose either a percentage of their direct payment or a traditional crop loss disaster payment calculated off a 35% or greater yield loss, he said.

“It is most likely that any package would have to be limited at least to all disaster declared counties (USDA or Presidential declaration), if not limited even further,” he added. “If both USDA and Presidential declared counties are included, virtually all of the rice producing counties would be covered. We will be working with the other commodity/ag groups to send a letter to the Hill and USDA on this issue and to try to help assemble a larger, bipartisan group of supporters for ag disaster aid. However, it is still very uncertain if a meaningful ag disaster package can be approved given the current budget situation.”

Attention Consumer Reports: Money Is An Object

Tell me what you eat, and I will tell you what you are.
-- Anthelme Brillat-Savarin

A Consumer Reports (CR) article --When it pays to buy organic -- has drawn intense criticism from fruit and vegetable leaders and return fire from the consumer group that publishes CR, according to Doane Agricultural Services, one of our web site’s content providers.

The CR article said that organic produce carries less chemical residue than conventionally grown produce. (Who’s surprised about that?)

The implication, according to the Produce Marketing Association (PMA) and other industry groups, is that non-organic produce is unsafe. That’s the obvious conclusion that the general public would draw from the article, although a spokeswoman for CR pointed out that "nowhere in the story does it say conventional produce is unsafe." Of course, it didn’t have to make that kind of direct statement. Just using the term “chemical residue” with the word “food” pretty much paints a dangerous picture, particularly for anyone who's two or more generations removed from farming. Many people visualize skulls and crossbones and tiny graves.

CR, though, showed no evidence that any of the residue levels that are found in fresh produce are at unsafe levels, either by themselves or in cases where more than one residue is present. The word "worrisome" was used by one environmental advocate to charactertize this combination of residues, but that doesn't constitute proof of anything, good or bad. The only real countering comment came from Joseph Rosen, a Rutgers food science professor, who said that the amount of pesticide exposure "in conventional foods is so low that it’s not a health threat.”

Spinach, one of the top sources of cancer-fighting anti-oxcidents, was cited as a food that carries a high number of chemical residues. There are enough reasons already to avoid spinach, as any 10-year-old will tell you.

(I’ll spare you more of the details, but if you want to read the full Doane account click here and the link in the first paragraph of this posting will take you to CR's original article.)

I’ve plowed through any number of articles like this over the years, with the back-and-forth banter between organic advocates like CR and groups representing conventional growers and/or industry groups like PMA. As noted in the Doane report, produce industry leaders said the report wrongly associated minute traces of pesticides on produce with food safety worries.

That’s the standard response, which is okay, but it never seems to go quite far enough.

For once, I’d like to see someone on the side of conventional production make the following statement:

“The problem with the American diet isn’t the fact that we are eating fresh fruits and vegetables treated with chemicals. The problem is that we’re not eating enough fresh fruits and vegetables, regardless of how they’re grown.”

The real health issue is the nutritionally poor, unbalanced nature of what we eat and how we eat it. Obesity, diabetes and various forms of cancer and heart disease have root in that simple fact. Our diet and long-term survivability wouldn’t be any better if we completely substituted organic meat, dairy products and vegetables for the conventionally grown stuff we now eat. Fat is fat and sugar is sugar, organic or not. If you’re not consuming enough fiber, switching to an equal amount of organic fiber still means your not eating enough fiber.

In an all-organic America, the average person would likely have a worse diet than he does now because it generally costs more to grow crops without conventional fertilizer and plant protection materials. People have only so much money to spend on food, and jacking up the price of apples means that people will eat fewer apples.

The CR report touched on the fact that organics cost more, and the writers gave vague tips about how to make better buys. The report listed one group of fruits, vegetables and processed products that consumers should buy from organic sources, presumably because those products tended to carry a wider range of chemical residues. There also was an optional group of produce and products CR's readers should buy from organic sources “if money is no object.”

Money, of course, is an object for most working-class folks, single mothers and people on fixed incomes. If you’re on food stamps, money is certainly an object and the organic section isn’t.

This kind of CR report, which garnered national newspaper and TV exposure, promotes a form of dietary chauvinism. CR’s audience can pay a little more for organic apples or baby food and still have enough money to cover the house note and upgrade the home entertainment center.

Sadly, CR’s report won’t really improve anyone’s health. The magazine set up a straw man and knocked him down. The hard truth for the magazine’s readers is that discipline matters more in our diets than how anything we eat is actually grown.

Item: Modern MarvelsItem: Like A Fish Finder

Modern Marvels: If you missed The History Channel’s premier tonight of Modern Marvels: Cotton, make it a point to catch one of the repeats on Thursday or Sunday. Overall, this was a balanced look at cotton’s history, its place in the modern world and the challenges that beset producers and the U.S. textile industry. By my count, at least 3 of our newsletter readers were interviewed for the program. Stephen Yafa also was among those interviewed. Yafa is the author of Big Cotton: How A Humble Fiber Created Fortunes, Wrecked Civilizations, and Put America on the Map. This history of cotton is well worth the read. Not coincidentally, the episode on cotton tonight was followed by an equally absorbing look at the history of harvesting equipment and how modern technology has greatly improved the efficiency of bringing in crops. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like that program will be linked with the next 2 showings of Cotton.

Like A Fish Finder: Pioneer Hi-Bred announced today that it will be releasing a new Southern soybean variety, 95M60, that’s resistant to multiple races of soybean cyst nematodes. The variety was developed with the company’s molecular marker technology. The system allows breeders to examine potential breeding material for known genetic markers that indicate specific types of resistance. "It's like using a fish finder to enable you to go to where the fish are," said Tim Foley, Pioneer's research director for the southern U.S. "You can focus on the 5% of the lines that have the full resistance package, not the 95 percent that don't." That shortens the time it takes to bring a new variety to market and allows breeders to screen more varieties to find the optimum package of resistance and yield characteristics, he said. The variety has confirmed resistance to SCN races 1, 2, 3, 5 and 14, the company indicated in a press release.

And we quote: "Part of the secret of success in life is to eat what you like and let the food fight it out inside."Mark Twain (1835 - 1910)

Beltwide, Soy Rust, Miss. Peanuts, Cotton Premier

Beltwide Coverage: Scroll down to our Jan. 12 listings to find about 10 articles I filed from this year’s Beltwide Cotton Conference in San Antonio.

Soybean Rust, ’06: Soybean rust was confirmed in Montgomery County, Ala., just after the first of the year on kudzu. James Marois, University of Florida plant pathologist, filed a report today on USDA’s soy rust web site, confirming that soybean rust was being identified on kudzu there in at least some of the locations with positive sightings last year.

Mississippi Peanut Meeting: Anyone in Mississippi interested in peanut production this year should probably attend a meeting next week in Hattiesburg to form a state association. The meeting is set for Jan. 23 at the Forrest County Extension office, 952 Sullivan Drive, Hattiesburg, Miss., starting at 10 a.m. It’s estimated that Mississippi could have 40,000 acres of peanuts this year, about double its ’05 crop.

Cotton On “Modern Marvels”: The History Channel will premier an episode of “Modern Marvels” Wednesday night that focuses on cotton. The program will be repeated on Thursday and Sunday. Click here for local times.

On the wire: Dow Jones reports that Brazilian marketing consultants are recommending soybean growers to sell now before world prices drop further. Click here.

And we quote: "Everyone has a purpose in life. Perhaps yours is watching television." -- David Letterman

Thanks for asking

Even though it’s the “off season” for my crop reports, I’m still on the phone a good deal of the time, mostly talking to folks outside of Mississippi. A couple of times a week, someone asks how things are going with the post-Katrina cleanup and rebuilding. I always appreciate it when people ask because it means our state hasn’t completely fallen off the nation’s radar screen.

The quick answer, albeit a vague one, is: “As good as can be expected.”

The cleanup is broadly underway, and individuals are trying, where possible, to restore their homes and bring some sense of normality to their lives. Unfortunately, many people remain displaced and dispossessed.

There is no shortage of need. That fact was pounded home the other night when I went on the web site for Camp Coast Care (CCC), which operates a food and clothing distribution center, a free medical clinic and counseling services for Katrina victims. I’ll get back to those needs in a moment.

First, though, a bit about the camp…

CCC, located on the campus of a church school in Long Beach, Miss., also houses volunteers who provide cleanup services and work on homes that are worth saving. People from all 50 states and most of the Canadian provinces have slept in the school’s gym at night and gathered up in work crews every morning to help coast residents sort through their belongings, rip out damaged sheetrock and otherwise lend a hand.

The camp is operated by the Lutheran Episcopal Disaster Response, a program the two denominations share. It’s no stretch to say that people of all faiths and religious outlooks have shown up to stay at CCC a few days or a few weeks and do gritty, manual labor.

CCC is one of several ongoing efforts supported by a number of religious and social service groups. I just happen to know more about CCC because we’re Episcopalians and because one of the people who got the camp off the ground is an old friend, Jennifer Knight. Jennifer is a nurse whose husband, David, is a priest at a nearby church, or at least what’s left of it.

When we first met the Knights, David was a banker who had the thankless job of being treasurer for our church, which 19 years ago seemed to always be teetering on the brink of insolvency. Several years ago David felt a calling, went to seminary in Chicago, and returned to Mississippi, first to a church in the Delta and then to one on the coast.

The move put Jennifer at the right place at the right time. Her job blew away with Katrina, and she immediately tried to volunteer with the Red Cross and at a local hospital, but both turned her down. Jennifer still saw a tremendous need for medical services on the coast, and Mississippi's Episcopal Bishop, Duncan Gray, gave her permission to set up a clinic at the school, which had quickly turned into a relief center. Medical volunteers from as far away as Virginia showed up in those first days to provide medical care.

Jennifer now coordinates a stream of doctors, nurses, pharmacists and other professionals who’ve filled a vital need far from their own homes. They’ve treated cases of pneumonia, cleaned wounds and tried to stay on top of the medical needs of the weak, the young and the elderly. The hurricane has created what Jennifer calls a class of "newly poor" people, folks who lost their jobs, their homes and their support system. Some come to the clinic because their doctor no longer practices on the coast. Even months after Katrinia, the clinic sees over 100 patients a day.

Our daughter, Sarah, is now doing her third or fourth stint at the camp, and she’s down there right now for about 3 weeks. She made me aware of the CCC’s web site and told me something about the immense needs that still exist. Hundreds of tons of clothing were shipped to the coast within days of the storm, but Sarah said all kinds of apparel are still needed. She worked in clothing distribution for a couple of days this week and never had enough men’s pants or serviceable shoes for children or adults.

People are wearing shoes that have been through months of mud and decay, and even a good pair of used shoes or boots quickly finds a pair of feet.

“It wouldn’t hurt to have more blankets, too,” she told me last night. “A Vietnamese couple came into the clinic today with a sick baby. (The coast has a concentration of Vietnamese immigrants.) They didn’t speak much English, and it was a little tough to communicate with them, and the baby didn’t have a blanket.”

Sarah went into the camp’s clothing supply to find one, but there were no blankets left. She ended up giving the couple the blanket off her own cot. (Her mother, not me, gets credit for instilling that kind of thoughtfulness.)

I went onto the camp’s web site after our conversation and was struck by how much is still needed. FEMA checks are, at best, a stopgap for people who've lost everything. And it’s not just that the camp is trying to distribute food and supplies to local folks, it’s also feeding and housing 150 to 200 volunteers a day.

I’m passing all this along to my regular readers for a couple of reasons.

• First, let me thank you for asking about how Mississippi is doing, and also to say thanks for all the help that many of you have already provided.
• Second, if you’re looking for ways to stretch your involvement, go to the camp’s web site. There may be things on its “needs list” that you can provide. Along with the web site, there’s an excellent Macromedia Flash slide show that presents information about CCC and the relief effort. (Click on the map to bring up the slides.)

Beltwide Overview

Except for a couple of brief items I’ll file later, this about wraps up my Beltwide Cotton Conference coverage for 2006. For the record, this year’s Beltwide ran January 4-6 in San Antonio, Texas.

One thing I always try to do is pinpoint the important trends, both for my own benefit and for the sake of my readers. Here’s a quick overview:

• Precision ag and related technology continue to expand and gain credibility. Kenneth Hood, a Mississippi farmer and president of InTime, spoke during the first day’s general session and cited a number of cases of improved yields and cost savings related to the technology. It's an established technology now. Carl Hobbs, a Georgia consultant who spoke on the same program, made a couple of insightly points. First: "Technology is always more intimidating than it is hard." Second: "Put new technology in a farmer's hands for two or three years, and he'll figure out how to use it." A number of papers delivered later in the conference went further into the subject.
• Irrigation efficiency will continue to be a key topic. Below you’ll find a report on variable rate irrigation (VRI) work in Georgia, which sited a remarkable savings in water usage when VRI systems were installed on just a handful of pivots. The overall technology is getting better and cheaper, too. James Mahan, a USDA-ARS researcher based in Lubbock, Texas, noted that he’s seen a dramatic drop in the cost of infrared thermometers used to measure canopy temperatures. About 20 years ago the instruments cost $3,000. Today, the devices run as little as $20 and are “almost disposable.” That makes it more feasible for researchers to finetune irrigation recommendations and for farmers to monitor their own field conditions.
• Herbicide resistance. Some folks were still in denial about this topic a year ago. A symposium in 2005 at least brought the topic into focus, but none of the Extension workers or researchers on the panel last year were overtly willing to say that wide-area resistance plans needed to be put into place or widely recommended. (I know because I asked in ’05, and have the dubious distinction of being the only person to actual pose a question during that symposium.) This year, herbicide resistance rated a spot near the top of the opening day’s general session, which guaranteed a maximum audience. This year’s opening herbicide resistance presentation was made by NCSU weed scientist Alan York, and hopefully it put a scare in people. With the discovery of glyphosate-resistant Palmer amaranth in Georgia and suspected cases elsewhere, the topic will pretty much be with this generation of weed scientists for the rest of their careers. Every weed-control recommendation from here on out will be based, in part, on the effect on herbicide resistance. Those of us who covered the development of pyrethroid resistance in the 1980s certainly have a feeling of déjà vu.
• WTO, farm program debate. I’m not going to stray too deeply into this one, but suffice to say the eventual outcome on these interconnected topics will affect the American countryside. It’s a shame that the European Union only produces about 2% of the world’s cotton (mainly in Spain and Greece). The EU has been trying to make its cotton support programs “less distorting” in terms of trade, but that mainly means shifting from a support payment based on a target price/world price formula to a system with payments to farmers based on yields and quality and other variables. EU producers had enjoyed the highest payment structure in the developed world, upwards of $1.25 a pound, and much of their production is irrigated. France doesn’t grow cotton but is involved in cotton in terms of its former African colonies, which lack the kind of overall production efficiency, transportation systems and ginning infrastructure that it actually takes to compete in the world market. That’s a legacy of colonialism compounded by the murky politics and management of Third World governments.

Here are all of our Beltwide-related articles:

• Beltwide Overview (Current Item)
  
• Innovative Grower Panel, 2006
• FMC Introduces Carbine Insecticide
• Beltwide Shorts
• Saving Water, One Pivot At A Time
• Herbicide Resistance: Don't Panic, But Be Proactive
• O.A. Cleveland Expects Narrower Pricing And Continued Shifting Toward Exports
• The Implications Of An Export Market
• The Coming World Market
  

Next year: The 2007 Beltwide is scheduled for New Orleans, January 9-12. National Cotton Council officials said that are hopeful that the conference will go as planned.

Beltwide: Innovative Grower Panel, 2006

The Innovative Grower Panel has become one of the highlights of the Beltwide’s general sessions. Four growers from very different parts of the country take turns talking about how they’ve tried to make their operations more efficient, productive or profitable. Their comments cover a wide range of topics. They don't lecture or preach, just share ideas that they've put into practice.

There’s no way to bring you every item that these producers touch on during the session, but the following summaries at least provide some of the high points from the 2006 panel.

David Dunlow, Gaston, N.C.:

• Hires seasonal staff: To beef up his work force during the busiests parts of the season, Dunlow brings in workers from Mexico to drive equipment, first during planting and spraying periods, then later in the year at harvest. “They work 12 to 14 hours a day, 7 days a week while they’re here,” said Dunlow, who also grows peanuts and operates a peanut buying and trucking business. “We pay them extremely well, and the same guys come back each season. That prevents us from having to train new workers.”
  
• Shifting to strip-till, wider equipment: Strip-till production has reduced planting passes from 6 to 2, which saves fuel, labor costs and equipment wear. The farm also is moving from 8-row to 12-row equipment, which further reduces operating costs. With wider equipment, it will take 8 tractors instead of 14 to put in crops.
• Emphasizes planning. Dunlow meets with employees every morning to give them assignments. He also asks for feedback about how jobs might be done better. “That makes them feel like they’re part of the decision process,” he said. “We go over the previous day’s work, discuss problems and set goals. If employees are happy and motivated they’re much more productive.” With cell phones and radios he maintains constant communications through the day with his farm manager and 3 crew chiefs. He keeps a “to do” list and prioritizes tasks.
• Has started computerizing field records. In ’05 he began carrying a laptop, using AgriEdge software from Syngenta to record field operations. “In a manner of minutes I can record any activity, and that gives me the ability to quickly pull up useful reports,” he said. “That wasn’t possible when I was keeping up with field work with a composition pad.”

Justin Cariker, Tunica, Miss.:

• Spreads out risk. Cariker plants a range of varieties to spread out maturity, field work and risk. The northwest Mississippi operation grows 4,300 acres of cotton, and the crop is mostly marketed through 2 different pools along with some that’s sold independent of the pool. That also spreads out risk. About 70% of the farm’s land is irrigated, including 2,000 acres under center pivot.
• Stays on top of details. Cariker works closely with his consultant, Winston Earnheart, on all aspects of production, from soil sampling to defoliation. He tracks field work and costs with Land.db, a software tool from Syngenta, and Cariker enters the data himself. “This gives me up-to-date costs per acre on every field,” he said. He never wants to get behind on irrigation. “Once you do, it’s hard to catch up.” If at all possible, harvest aids are applied by ground with 15 to 20 gpa of water to increase the odds of one-pass defoliation.
• Paratills every cotton acre every fall, if possible. Besides opening soils, this helps maintain controlled traffic patterns.
• Pushes for a quick harvest. The goal is to finish picking in 28 to 32 days with 3 pickers, each of which has its own boll buggy and module builder. “We try to harvest before the time changes, since we find that productive falls 10% to 15% at night,” he said.

Doug Wilde, San Angelo, Texas:

• Emphasizes water usage. It hasn’t hurt that the Southern Rolling Plains has had good rainfall in the last couple of years, said Wilde, who farms with his parents and brother. The area averages about 18 inches of rain a year, but in ’05 that much rain had already fallen before the season started. Dryland yields went from a typical average of 400 lbs/acre to 700 lbs/acre. But the Wilde operation also has started investing in subsurface drip irrigation, and those yields have been hitting 1,800 lbs/acre, with some fields topping 2,000. Cost-sharing funds have helped the Wilde operation install subsurface systems on 300 acres, and they expect to add another 400 acres of drip irrigation over the next year. “We didn’t install the systems so much to save water as to use water more efficiently,” he explained. The irrigation tape, which runs under every row, allows them to plant and gain a full stand in 10 days.
  
• Reduces stress and competition. Bollgard II varieties have eliminated worm feeding, he said, and the area has been declared effectively free of boll weevils. Early season pests are handled with Cruiser or Gaucho Grande, along with insecticide applications with Roundup and maybe one more with a Pix application. With their plant growth regulator program, the goal is to have less than 2 inches of internode elongation. In irrigated fields the goal is to hold plant height to no more than 36 inches, which is adequate to carry a 4-bale average, Wilde said. Their subsurface systems have the capacity to supply enough water for at least that yield level, he added. Irrigation is closely timed with evapotranspiration data from a nearby Extension weather stations. Irrigation continues up to 20% cracked bolls. Their fertility program in subsurface fields also is built around a 4-bale goal.
• Utilizes waste. Dairy manure is incorporated in fields, and 100 acres is irrigated with treated effluent water from the city of San Angelo.

Cannon Michael, Los Banos, Calif.:

• Shifting to one-pass field work. After stalks are cut, beds are prepped for the next year with an Optimizer. Michael calls it a “Swiss army knife implement” that weighs 50,000 pounds and takes a minimum of 500 hp to pull. Working beds ahead of time is critical in the upper San Joaquin Valley, he said. “We sometimes get early rains before planting, and the soils we have can be prone to compaction if they’re not worked right,” he said. “The optimizer allows us to get across ground faster than we ever have in the past.” EQIP funding through NRCS helped pay for the implement, he added. Air quality is a big issue in the SJV, and the system has cut out several field trips and saves $50 an acre over the cost of conventionally preparing land.
• Keeping an eye on things with remote imagery. Michael has started using Landsat satellite images to gain an overview of crop vigor and spot potential weak points. The images also are now being used to map out variable rate defoliation treatments.

Beltwide '06: FMC Introduces Carbine Insecticide

FMC held a press briefing at last week’s Beltwide Cotton Conference to formally introduce Carbine, an insecticide being positioned in much the same niche as neonicitinoids. But company personnel noted that Carbine has a much different mode of action.

Instead of killing targeted pests outright, it takes away their ability to feed. In the case of plant bugs, Carbine causes the insect’s proboscis to remain limp. Without the use of this tubular mouth organ, the plant bug can’t pierce plant tissue and feed. The insect stops feeding in as little as 15 to 30 minutes of contact with the compound and quickly stops damaging plants. It essentially starves to death over a period of several days.

Carbine will be marketed for controlling both plant bugs in the east and lygus in the west. Aphid and fleahopper control also are on the label.

For scouts accustomed to finding dead bugs after a treatment, the concept will take some adjustment. FMC ran evaluations with 11 Midsouth consultants last summer, said Rusty Mitchell, and they began to get a feel for how it works.

“The numbers don’t go down immediately and may even go up temporarily if there’s a migration into the field soon after treatment,” said Mitchell, FMC's Delta technical support manager. “One Mississippi consultant called me a few days after treating and said, ‘Something is going on. The bugs are still out there, but I’m no longer finding damage.’ A consultant in Louisiana treated 3 times and kept finding plant bugs, and he was convinced that the material wasn’t working. But at the end of the season he found that cotton treated with Carbine out-yielded his standard treatment in a direct comparison.”

The active ingredient is flonicamid, which has a different mode of action than pyrethroids, OP materials or neonic compounds.

While Carbine can be used throughout the season and up to 3 treatments are permitted, its initial fit will be in the first 4 weeks of squaring, Mitchell said. Growers who use a neonic-based seed treatment must hold off using foliar treatments with that type of chemistry for up to 45 days, Mitchell specified, and that first pinhead square application would be the point to work Carbine into a pest management program.

To illustrate Carbine activity, FMC showed 2 short videos, one of an untreated plant bug feeding and the other of a Carbine-treated plant bug. The treated insect moved around more and seemed agitated, while the untreated plant bug stayed in one spot.

The presentation also included comparisons of treated and untreated insects that were placed in an electrical feeding study. In this type of evaluation, wires are attached to the back of the insect and to the plant tissue on which it’s feeding, and a weak electrical current passes through the wires. As the insect makes solid feeding contact with the plant, it completes the electrical circuit, much like throwing a light switch. The electrical flow can be measured as wave forms on a computer.

Company personnel showed one comparison of plant bugs placed on treated and untreated green beans.

The two wave tables, compressing 6 hours of feeding, showed both insects starting out with a similar feeding pattern. But after about 45 minutes the plant bug on the treated green bean quit feeding. In all, it fed for less than 1,700 seconds over the 6-hour test while the insect on the untreated bean fed for 8,100 seconds, resulting in an 80% reduction in feeding.

Plant bugs have emerged as a major pest due to less coincidental control with broad-spectrum insecticides, noted Yemel Ortega, Carbine product manager. Bt cotton and boll weevil eradication have reduced the use of insecticides that previously helped hold plant bugs in check. There is concern now that overuse of existing products will aggravate resistance,Ortega said.

“We are strongly recommending Carbine as part of a rotation program with other chemistry,” Ortega emphasized. “This is a way to take a more holistic approach. By rotating Carbine, particularly with neonicitinoids in early season, we can maintain a high level of efficacy with all products, now and in the future.”

While Ortega said pricing had not been worked out yet, Carbine would be “priced competitively” with current materials.

More information is available on FMC's web site. Click here for more details.

Beltwide Shorts

• First 40 Days: A couple of presentations were made relating to The First 40 Days: The Most Critical Period in Cotton Production, a white paper citing best management practices during the early season. The project was funded by Bayer CropScience and was based on input and data from a couple of dozen Extension workers and university personnel from a wide range of disciplines. We posted a PDF copy of the 8-page report on our web site. Click here to download the document.

• Cotton Record Keeping Advances: Cotton Incorporated unveiled an integrated accounting and field records system developed with cotton farmers in mind. Unlike software written mainly for the Corn Belt, this one includes things like expense categories for defoliation and ginning costs, and it all ties into a precision ag approach. The package was jointly developed Red Wing Software, Inc., and MapShots, Inc. with recommendations and encouragement from CI. The basic software package allows a producer to track variable rate applications, as well as conventional "whole field" applications. An optional software module that performs precision ag analysis and generates variable rate prescriptions. The precision ag module also includes soil test software that supports over 20 different lab "soil test" formats. Redwing will allow producers to know their true cost of production, and it will also help with tax information.

Beltwide '06:Saving Water, One Pivot At A Time

Equipping 19 pivot systems in Georiga with variable-rate irrigation (VRI) systems cut water usage by 127 million gallons in 2005, consultant Carl Hobbs reported during a presentation last week at the 2006 Beltwide Cotton Conference. That’s enough water, according to one estimate of per-capita usage, to supply 3,000 people for a year, Hobbs said.

Hobbs and his partner, Jay Holder, operate Hobbs & Holder Precision Irrigation Technologies, and they have been working with farmers, Extension personnel, soil conservationists and university researchers on VRI systems for the last couple of years. Hobbs also is a crop consultant and a regular contact for 2 of our newsletters, PeanutFax and AgFax: Southeast Cotton.

“We’re comfortable advertising a 12% water savings with VRI, but on those systems we saved 19%, on average, and with some systems it was as high as 28%,” Hobbs specified.

A VRI system is equipped with computer-controlled pressure valves that can be turned off or turned down, as needed, across all or parts of the pivot. On a boggy part of the field the electronic controller reduces or shuts off the flow. In a sandy part of a field, the pivot might slow down to increase the gallonage. The controller also can shut off the end gun to prevent it from spraying water into roads, trees or adjoining fields. In addition, water rates can be varied around a circle that contains more than one crop.

Decisions about how to program a pivot are made with aerial imagery, field maps and ground-level evaluations. Initial programming is handled on a desktop computer, then copied to a compact flash card for transfer to the pivot’s controller, which Hobbs described as a specialized spray controller. A GPS receiver on the pivot tells the controller where the nozzles are at any given time.

“VRI puts only as much water in a given part of the field as the crop needs,” Hobbs said. “One grower who waters from a pond told me that until he got the VRI system he had never been able to put three-quarters of an inch of water around the circle without having to slow down at some point to let the pond catch up. A turf grower had never been able to produce grass in one quadrant of his circle because it was too boggy. Now, though, he can reduce the flow on that part of the field, and he’s now growing high-value zoysia in that area.”

Cost-sharing funds from NRCS have helped defray the cost of some VRI equipment installations. Most electric-drive pivots with pressure regulators can be retrofitted, Hobbs said. More installations are planned for 2006 in Georgia and South Carolina. Hobbs said he and Holder expect to set up systems this year in Mississippi and Arkansas.

Not every pivot may be a good candidate for VRI, Hobbs said, and work needs to be done on a suitability index to determine to what extent an investment in VRI would pay for itself. In a level field with a uniform soil type the payback would take longer than in a field with highly variable soil types, for example.

There still are plenty of pivots in Georgia, however, that are candidates for a VRI retrofit. In 1970, Hobbs noted, only 87 pivots could be found in the entire state of Georgia. Today, the state boasts 10,500 systems, which is more than any other state except Texas.

For more information, go to the Hobbs & Holder web site, http://betterpivots.com.

Beltwide '06: Herbicide Resistance: Don't Panic, But Be Proactive

Herbicide resistance isn’t the end of the world, but it does present a very serious, expensive problem for any grower who runs up against it. If comments by North Carolina State University weed scientist Alan York’s are any indication, many cotton producers now face that risk.

Since last year’s Beltwide, glyphosate-resistant Palmer amaranth (PA) has been confirmed in Georgia and it’s suspected in North Carolina and South Carolina. The confirmed cases of resistant PA follow a four-year spread of glyphosate-resistant horseweed, which now includes instances in 13 states, including 6 cotton states.

One indication of how seriously the resistance topic is being taken now is the position York had on the program at this year's Beltwide Cotton Conference. Last year, herbicide resistance rated a symposium just before lunch on the conference’s second morning. This year, York’s presentation came in the first half of the conference’s opening session, just after the National Cotton Council and Cotton Incorporated gave their annual updates. In other words, that’s the point in the Beltwide when you’ll likely have the biggest crowd.

Horseweed has been sort of a warmup game for dealing with PA, another weed scientist told me later that day. It got everyone’s attention and forced people to think about strategies and options. As York noted, there are effective burndown options when for glyphosate-resistant horseweed, provided you know you have the problem. But if a grower doesn’t go with the right burndown program and then resistant horseweed after emergence, he has limited options.

Because resistant horseweed has spread so quickly, York has been “telling our no-till growers that if they have horseweed (they should assume it’s a glyphosate-resistant biotype and act accordingly.” Being proactive at this point might head off worse problems later, he explained.

PA is another beast, altogether. Left alone, this pigweed species can tower above the crop canopy and grow about an inch a day during peak periods. It also is a prolific seed producer, and the resistance trait can move easily into subsequent generations.

York cited a comment made by Ford Baldwin, a former University of Arkansas weed scientist who now works as a private consultant and contributor to Delta Farm Press (DFP). Earlier last year, Baldwin noted that soybean rust had stirred up concern among farmers. But Baldwin, writing in DFP, said that if glyphosate-resistant PA became established it would make soybean rust look like “a Sunday School picnic.”

Not long after that, Stanley Culpepper with the University of Georgia announced that glyphosate-resistant PA had been found in his state. York showed a slide that Culpepper was to include in a later presentation at the Beltwide. It showed three plots with resistant PA – an untreated check, a plot treated 3 times with a normal glyphosate rate and a plot treated 3 times with a 4X rate. There was very little visual difference among the images.

“If you have Palmer amaranth back home,” York said, “these slides should scare you.”

Discovery of glyphosate-resistant PA has “brought concern about herbicide resistance to a whole new level,” York added.

The trick now is to avoid the problem where it hasn’t developed, said York, because that’s easier than dealing with a resistant population after it becomes entrenched.

Keep in mind, too, that no new chemistries are in the immediate pipeline, said York. In the past, growers could be somewhat complacent about herbicide resistance because they assumed industry would introduce the next “silver bullet” as a remedy, York said.

He alluded to the fact that the dominance of Roundup Ready technology discouraged most other manufacturers from researching and developing new herbicides. What we have now in the way of chemistry will be it for a long time.

As York emphasized, growers must work to maintain the viability of all available herbicides, not just glyphosate. One concern are the ALS inhibitors, which can be an effective tool against glyphosate-resistant PA, but their use across multiple crops sets them up, as well, for problems. ALS resistance in PA already has been documented, York noted.

So, how do you deal with the threat of resistance? York outlined a number of recommendations:

First, understand resistance. Herbicides don’t cause resistance. Continued use of a material simply selects out biotypes that have developed resistance, either through mutations or other processes. An estimated one plant in a million might carry a resistant trait. It might take as long as 15 years for a resistant population to spring up or as little as 3 years, York estimated.

Know your weed problems. That’s the best way, said York, to spot resistant plants early and deal with problems before they get out of hand.

Minimize movement. If resistance develops on one farm, clean equipment and/or schedule work in a way that reduces the chance to move resistant seed to new areas.

Reduce selection pressure. There are plenty of options, said York, like shifting more weed control steps to preplant tillage and crop cultivation. Crop rotation, where possible, can add new modes of action, especially when rotational crops aren’t Roundup Ready. That forces new weed control measures into the system. Rotation with a perennial grass is another option. Maintaining a sound fertility program and close control of early insects also keeps cotton plants competitive and allows them to hold down some weed pressure, York added.

Some of his suggestions, York admitted, go against long-term trends. Farmers who’ve shifted to conservation tillage don’t want to return to cold steel as a weed control tool. But tillage may be the only option in some cases if heavy resistance develops, he said.

York showed a resistance management program that is being promoted for 2006 in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina. The program specifies three elements: a residual herbicide at planting, a residual herbicide during the post-emerge period and a residual herbicide at layby.
“We’re asking growers to pick 2 or those 3 options and include them in their plan along with their normal glyphosate program,” York said.

The approach, he said, is “slanted toward (resistance management) of PA because it’s such a potential problem and also because we have concerns about glyphosate resistance.” He also cautioned against over-use of ALS-inhibitors because of concerns about losing them as an option for controlling glyphosate resistant PA that might develop.

How do you detect herbicide resistance? York said a few common sense steps will help determine if a problem is developing. These include:

• Eliminate other possibilities. Most control failures are unrelated resistance. Before assuming anything, make sure that the proper herbicide was used at the right time, on the right species and at the correct rate. Also, be certain that problems with spraying equipment or washoff aren’t to blame.
• Study the survivors. Did some plants of the targeted species die while intermingled plants in that species come through the treatment? That’s a possible indicator that resistant biotypes are present. Also, how did the treatment work on other species in its spectrum? If it took out other targeted weeds but missed a portion of plants in one species – like horseweed or PA – that could be a sign of early resistance.
• Look for clumps or groupings. If a plant deposited seeds with resistant characteristics, you’ll probably see multiple survivors in spots or areas of a field.

Beltwide '06: O.A. Cleveland Expects Narrower Pricing And Continued Shifting Toward Exports

U.S. prices will probably be in a somewhat narrow range for 2006-07, O.A. Cleveland said Thursday during a marketing conference at this year’s Beltwide Cotton Conference in San Antonio.

Cleveland, an economist and Mississippi State University professor emeritus, aanticipates a price range this year from 48 to 68 cents, a 20-cent difference. Typically, he said, an active cotton market will swing as much as 25 cents between the year’s low and high prices. Specifically, he sees:

• A 2006-07 crop of 21.5 million bales. That’s based on recent yield trends but also factors in droughty conditions in some grower areas.
• Further slippage in domestic consumption, edging downward by 200,000 bales to 5.8 million.
• Relatively strong exports, although the total will fall to 15.1 million bales from last year’s level of 16.4 million.
• World production at 112 million and consumption at 116 million.
  

Don’t count on improving domestic consumption, either this year or in the futureCleveland stressed. “Two years ago we consumed 6.5 million bales domestically. Last season, we jumped to 6.7 million bales as prices were 10 cents a pound lower a year ago, compared to now. We should not expect to see domestic consumption to climb back to 6.5 million and, in fact, we should expect another 500,000- to 800,000-bale reduction by 2010.”

In Cleveland’s opinion, the Step 2 program – billed as a way to save the domestic textile industry – actually hastened what he believes was its inevitable demise. Globalization and U.S. trade policy already were working against the industry, and the Step 2 program sped up the process.

U.S. growers have to reconcile themselves to the fact that they will continue to grow cotton mainly for export, and that will require major shifts in the loan schedule, Cleveland said.

“The historic base, SLM 1-1/16 inch cotton should become a discount grade in the loan schedule, just as it is in the world market. Growers can help themselves through this by aggressively voicing their support for a premium being paid for quality.” This is necessary, said Cleveland, to reorient marketing toward an export-dominated paradigm.

Without changes in the loan schedule, “there is little incentive for the U.S. to move to quality cotton production.” Merchants and co-ops offer only “scant” rewards for quality cotton, preferring to spread quality gains over all growers. It’s a system that the current generation of middlemen inherited, and it hasn’t been changed in nearly half a century, Cleveland added. Growers also has been largely complacent about the system, he said.

China continues to be “the future of cotton.” Globecot – which Cleveland said has had the best track record for predicting Chinese consumption over the last 3 years – estimates that Chinese consumption will climb to 45 million bales this season. It might even hit 46 million bales. “Taking consumption at this level, we must realize that China and the Indian Sub-continent (India, Pakistan) account for 80 million bales of cotton consumption every year,” Cleveland specified. But in that group of countries, only China is a major importer of U.S. cotton.

Uzbekistan is a major unknown, he added. The Central Asian nation is in political turmoil and has come under pressure from both the U.S. House and Senate over political repression. “This is a hot spot that could rock the world cotton industry any day and lead to as much as a 10-cent move to the upside before pausing for a reality check.”

The Farm Bill debate is the “greatest challenge” for U.S. growers in the coming 18 to 24 months. The administration is “intent on cutting support for U.S. agriculture in general and singling out cotton specifically. The cotton industry must take a unified approach in any debate, Cleveland emphasized.

Beltwide '06: (Click Here) High Cotton Winners Focus on Conservation to Improve Yields, Profits

Winners of the Farm Press/Cotton Foundation High Cotton Awards announced Wednesday at Beltwide Cotton Conference. National Cotton Countil release.

Beltwide '06: The Coming World Market

How will the world cotton market shape up in the new year?

Gary Adams, the National Cotton Council’s vice president for economics and policy analysis, brought the following observations to this week’s Beltwide Cotton Conference in San Antonio:

• Bigger crops have pushed more bales onto the market. “From 1995 through 2003, world cotton production and consumption ranged between 85 and 100 million bales, and we generally traded between 25 and 30 million bales. In the last two years, it appears that we’ve moved to a new level. The record-crop of 120 million bales in 2004 is being followed by another large crop between 110 and 115 million bales.”

• Consumption has also jumped. It’s estimated at 115 million bales for the current marketing year, said Adams. The amount of cotton traded increased, with a large share of that going to China.

Data for 2004 and 2005 raises several questions about the future, Adams said during the conference’s opening session.

• Is this “bigger” market a new plateau or a spike?

• Can the United States continue to find a home for 15 million bales in the export market?

• If so, who will be the customers?

Adams cited several countries and regions and the roles they might play.

Mexico: It’s currently our second or third largest export customer, buying about 1.8 million bales of U.S. cotton per year. “It is also the case that much of the cotton they purchase is eventually returned to the U.S. retail market as apparel or textiles,” said Adams. “The concern for Mexico’s textile industry is much the same as the U.S. – that is competition from Asian textile products. Mexico continues to lose share of the U.S retail market to China, and as a result, their mill use has been flat to slightly declining. The recent textile import agreement between the U.S. and China may slow further declines between now and 2008, but expect this market to remain under pressure longer term.”

Brazil: This South American country has tremendous potential to expand its production. “Some estimates suggest that Brazil could bring 250 million acres of new land into crop production – that’s roughly equivalent to what the United States has in production of the major row crops. Also, the new areas coming into cotton production are high-yielding.” Ag expansion is a priority for Brazil’s government, Adams said, citing a USDA estimate that the Brazilian government is providing $13 billion in support to agriculture through credit and investment programs.

Brazil’s cost of production have been among the lowest, but a stronger currency has increased the cost of imported inputs and reduced the country’s competitiveness. “Current expectations call for a drop in both production and exports in the short term,” said Adams. “However, longer term, Brazil still must be viewed as a country with the potential to increase production and exports, assuming they address some long-standing transportation issues.”

West Africa: The cotton-producing countries in West Africa, mostly former French colonies, have gained increased attention, primarily due to their role in bringing cotton front and center at the World Trade Organization (WTO). “Together, these countries account for only 4 percent of world cotton production. With little in the way of a textile industry, roughly 90 percent of their crop is exported as raw fiber, so they are a more significant player in the overall trade picture.” The actual potential for growth in these production areas, though, depends on whether they can improve their own production, ginning and distribution systems, Adams noted.

“During the past decade, average yields in West Africa have remained flat, while the average across all other countries has increased by 150 pounds per acre,” he specified.

Western Europe: Although the European Union’s agricultural policy offers the highest per-pound support of all cotton-producing countries, they account for only 2 percent of world production, Adams pointed out. “Also, much like our own textile industry, their industry has suffered from an influx of imported textile products. As a result, mill use in Western Europe has fallen from 6 down to 3 million bales.”

But Western Europe still represents a potential growth area for cotton. Per-capita purchases of cotton apparel and textile products in Western Europe lag that of U.S. consumers by 22 pounds. With a population of almost 400 million, each additional pound of cotton consumption equates to another 800,000 bales of demand, Adams estimated.

India: India is poised for growth, both in cotton demand and cotton production. It’s the world’s second fastest growing economy after China and could overtake China in population over the coming decades. “With more than 16 million bales of mill use, they are the second largest spinner, and generally considered to be well-positioned to prosper in the post-textile quota environment.

“With almost 22 million acres harvested, India devotes more area to cotton production than any other country. However, their production potential depends on their ability to improve yields. Prior to 2003, yields averaged below 300 pounds per acre – less than half the level of other countries. Since then, we’ve seen a 100-pound improvement in yields.” Gains were mostly attributable to adoption of new technology, like Bt varieties.

China: China is the world’s largest producer, with about 25 million bales in 2005 and 29 million in 2004. China also is the world’s largest spinner at 43 million bales and also now is the largest importer, with potential purchases of 16 million bales in the current marketing year.

With purchases of 5 million bales in the first 5 months of this marketing year, China is on pace to be the largest consumer of U.S. cotton, said Adams. It is likely that the U.S. will sell China 7 to 8 million bales of the 2005 crop.

“However, there are still issues with access to China’s market,” Adams said. “A continuing concern is their allocation of a portion of their quota based on the condition of export of the textile product. In addition, China imposes a variable levy on all imports above the initial quota of 4 million bales, in effect raising the cotton price relative to manmade fibers.”

Even though China is home to 1.3 billion people, it has shown little growth in its own retail market for cotton products. “The growth in mill demand is clearly driven by their ability to sell textile products in other markets. This remains a concern of not only the U.S. textile industry, but also textile industries in most developing countries.”

On a per-capita basis, China’s own retail consumption of 18 million bales per year only amounts to 6 pounds per person. Meanwhile, manmade fiber consumption stands at 14 pounds per person, having tripled over the past decade. “If cotton had simply maintained its market share relative to manmade fibers, it would mean an additional 12 million bales of consumption in China’s retail channels, Adams pointed out.

Beltwide '06: The Implications Of An Export Market

In less than a decade, U.S. cotton producers have watched their customer base dramatically shift from mainly one dominated by domestic mills to a market dominated by export sales.

In 1997, the U.S. textile industry consumed 11.3 million bales, or 60% of the cotton crop, while exports in that same year stood at 7.5 million bales. In just 9 years, exports have jumped to 16 million bales or about 70% of the crop, while U.S. mill use has dropped to 6 million bales.

Increased dependence on exports has a number of implications, noted Gary Adams, the National Cotton Council’s vice president for economics and policy analysis.

As Adams pointed out during the Beltwide’s opening session, increased exports have:

• Put a strain on the industry’s shipping and storage infrastructure. “Instead of the majority of the crop moving to textile mills in the southeast in a somewhat orderly manner throughout the marketing year, we now have most of the cotton going to ports such as Long Beach, Savannah, or Galveston. And as we’ve seen, those shipments can come in bunches.”

• Heightened price volatility. “The balance between exportable supplies and import demand will be key to movements in market prices. As overall demand for US production relies more heavily on exports, we can be in a situation of increased volatility. Year-to-year volatility will depend on weather and a number of external factors around the world.”

• Put more importance on factors out of the control of U.S. producers. Success will hinge increasingly on “external factors” like exchange rates, economic growth overseas and weather problems in competing countries, he said.

For the current marketing year, China is still on pace to be the largest consumer of U.S. cotton, said Adams.

Manmade fibers remain a challenge, he added.

“It is likely that the U.S. will sell China 7 to 8 million bales of this year’s crop,” he estimated. “Globally, manmade fiber use totals 180 million bales, compared to 115 million bales of cotton. As we look at challenges facing the global cotton market, the ability to increase demand and regain market share relative to manmade fibers is paramount.”

The domestic textile industry has withered as imported goods increased. Over the last 10 years, imports of cotton textiles – mostly from Asia – have “roughly tripled,” Adams said. In 1995, imports of cotton textiles stood at the equivalent of 8.4 million bales. The estimated import level for 2005 will be about 22 million bales, he said.

A significant portion of the remaining textile industry output – the equivalent of about 5 million bales – goes into the export market in the form of yarn, tread and fabric. Much of that is shipped to countries in this hemisphere where it’s manufactured into finished goods for sale here in the U.S.

“That leaves only a small amount that is completely manufactured into a finished consumer product within the United States,” Adams said. “Adding up fiber exports and textile exports suggests that 90%-plus of the U.S. cotton crop enters export channels,” either as raw fiber, thread, yard or fabric.

So, like it or not, the economic health of the U.S. cotton and textile industry is directly linked to developments in other cotton-producing and consuming countries.
“In short, we are competing in a global market, and we are directly impacted by what happens in that market,” Adams noted.

Beltwide Cotton Conference

Our coverage this week of the Beltwide Cotton Conference in San Antonio, Texas, will be posted here on our blog. We will making updates each day starting on Wednesday, January 4, and running through Friday, January 6.

Farming And Baseball: "Wait 'Til Next Year!"

HBO’s Costas Now would seem an unlikely place to hear a farmer interviewed, much less profiled.

It’s a sports show. Granted, Costas Now is probably the most intelligent one every produced. But on the odd occasion when I watch it, host Bob Costas features people who are sports figures in their own right.

But the farmer in this case, David Robinson, has a deep and compelling connection to America’s athletic history. Robinson is the son and youngest child of the late Jackie Robinson, who broke pro baseball’s color barrier when he took the field in 1947 for the Brooklyn Dodgers.

David Robinson has spent the last 20 years in Africa growing coffee and developing a coffee cooperative, Sweet Unity Farms, located in the East African highlands of Tanzania. The cooperative’s goal is to produce a gourmet coffee that can be marketed in a way that puts more of the profits in the pockets of the native farmers who produce it. It’s the same fundamental goal of any farm cooperative, and Robinson clearly understood the basic thing every farmer wishes for as each new season begins.

“Farmers have to operate in a business where they might have a year with high yields or a year with good prices,” he said. “What they always hope for, of course, is a year with both.”

Robinson was featured in late October, and I’m quoting from memory, so my apologies if I didn’t get that wording quite right. The gist of that quote, though, stayed with me for a good reason. Robinson isn’t the first farmer I’ve heard make that same statement over the last 30 years. He won’t be the last, either.

Will 2006 be that kind of year, the one with strong yields and a lucrative market?

The stars haven’t been lining up in that direction, have they?

But, then again, you never know. The beginning of the year always brings at least a wisp of fresh hope.

Robinson also said that farming is a lot like baseball. To have a top season, nearly everything has to come together. In farming, it’s the right amount of rain, favorable temperatures, a lack of pests. In baseball, it’s enough hits, good fielding and a few lucky breaks. Both are games with an enormous number of variables. Preparation is important in both endeavors, as well.

As Robinson noted, Dodger fans had an unofficial motto that summed up baseball and farming: “Wait ‘til next year!”

New Year, New Blog

I’m starting the New Year by rolling out my new blog.

A blog, if you’re unfamiliar with the term, is a short way to say web log. It’s a place for me to post information, ideas and opinions that don’t necessarily fit in our established reports or on our web pages. To put it another way, this will be a kind of running account of the things I want to emphasize to the people who already receive our reports or visit our web site.

Readers will be able to respond to our postings, making this a two-way conversation. The focus, of course, will be on agriculture, mainly in the crops and areas we already cover.

I expect to post at least one or two items every day, along with an occasional observation.

Stay tuned for more.