Beltwide Cotton Conference, New Orleans

It's a breezy 35 degrees in New Orleans, but it feels like 29 when crossing Canal Street to hear the speakers of the day. Everyone is talking weather while a winter storm watch for snow and ice is predicted three hours north of the Crescent City.

Cotton Insect Loss Estimates Across the Cotton Belt - 2009
Michael R. Williams from the Entomology and Plant Pathology Department at Mississippi State University, released info on Cotton insect Loss Estimates for 2009. It comes as no surprise that Lygus, Thrips, Heliothines and stink bugs were major pests. However, total losses in U.S. cotton were at 2.56 -- not bad. Williams credits technological advances in pest management as key to keeping losses below 5 percent. He notes that new pest control complexes developed slower than anticipated though bugs continue to be worrisome as insecticide resistance becomes a reality. Growers will see Spider mites, aphids and Thrips making a comeback with more selective insecticides on the horizon. Cotton insect management was $43.79 per acre in 2009, cost plus losses were $62.68 per acre.

Cotton Economic Update
Gary M. Adams, National Cotton Council, said an improved general economy, the weaker U.S. dollar and improving fundamentals with a tighter balance sheet, moved cotton gains 20 to 25 cents last year. In 2009, 9.1 million acres were planted, down 3.5 percent from 2008, with average yield at 782 pounds per acre. Excessive rainfall in the Mid-South and Southeast, plus the south Texas drought lowered crop potential with 10.9 million 480-bales classed as of December 31.
Cotton exports will again be critical with 2009-10 exports down from previous 2 years. As with the world balance sheet, U.S. cotton stocks projected to decline. Current estimate off 4.5 million bales, less than half total stocks of past two years. Top three markets of China, Turkey and Mexico receive more than half of all U.S. exports. China is largest at 30 percent.
India presents significant competition in cotton export market. Due to increased price supports in 2008, their exports sharply lower in 2008-09, but as world prices improve they are poised to expand exports. An increase in India's trade share generally means a reduction in U.S. trade share.
Adams Looks at 2010: Cotton stocks will decline, offering support to cotton prices. Recent rise in prices has placed cotton in more competitive position than anytime in past three years. Historically, when world prices approach current levels, growers in other countries respond with increased area.
Maintaining mill demand at current prices is critical. Manmade fibers continue to pose serious competition for U.S. cotton emphasizing importance of promotion efforts of Cotton Incorporated and Cotton Council International.